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Professor Herman J. Bierens
Office: 510 Kern.
Email: hbierens@psu.edu
Office hours: Wednesday 2-4 PM or by appointment.
Tuesday and Thursday from 11:15 AM to 12:30 PM in 075 Willard.
The goal of this course is to teach the students how to forecast time series, using econometric software, and what kind of models are useful for that purpose.
Forecasting of time series requires the use of econometrics and econometric software. Therefore, ECON 490, Introduction to Econometrics, or an equivalent level statistics course, is the prerequisite level. However, the necessary econometrics will be reviewed.
Each week I will assign homework of numerical and empirical nature, and occasionally of (mild) theoretical nature. The empirical homework assignments are designed to teach you practical modeling and forecasting skills. The theoretical homework assignments aim to improve your understanding of concepts and to prepare you for the exams. Homework assignments must be submitted in class. Homework submitted by email will not be accepted. No late homework will be accepted.
Most homework assignments will require the use of econometric software. You may use whatever statistical or econometric computer software package that you are familiar with. Several are available on the network, such as Stata and E-Views. However, I recommend to use my free econometrics software package EasyReg International, which I will use for demonstrations in class. EasyReg (= Easy Regression) is a Windows based software package, which can be freely downloaded from my EasyReg web site. As the name indicates, EasyReg is very easy to use (just point-and-click), and comes with a wide range of web based guided tours.
There is no required text book. Instead, I will use lecture notes:
The following empirical homework web pages contain mathematical formulas and Greek symbols and are therefore best viewed with Internet Explorer, because other web browsers may not display the "Symbol" fonts involved. For example, "s" should be displayed as the Greek letter "sigma" rather than the Roman "s". If not, reload these web pages in Internet Explorer.
The course grade will be based on the homework (50%), a written midterm exam (25%), and a written final exam (25%). The final exam is cumulative. The large share of the homework in the final grade indicates the hands-on nature of this course. The homework has to be done individually. Turning in copied homework as your own is a breach of academic integrity (see below). Doing the homework assignments is mandatory, and so is class attendance. If you skip a homework assignment without a valid excuse (see below) then each time the missing homework will be graded zero. If your score on the final exam is higher than on the midterm exam, then the midterm score will be ignored and the final exam will count for 50%, provided that you have done all the homework seriously and have not skipped classes without valid excuse. Otherwise, your grade will be based on a weighted average of the homework and exam scores.
There will be no make-up midterm exam. If you miss the midterm exam without valid excuse then your score on this exam will be zero, and the favorable arrangement above will not apply. If you have a valid excuse for missing the midterm exam, the final exam will count for 50%.
The main purpose of the exams is to check whether you understand the lecture notes, in particular the lecture notes on forecasting. Consequently, all the answers to the exam questions are in the lecture notes!
During the course many possible situations may arise that would result in your inability to attend class, attend exams, or perform at a minimally acceptable level during an examination. Illness or injury, family emergencies, certain University-approved curricular and extra-curricular activities, and religious holidays can be legitimate reasons to miss class or to be excused from a scheduled examination.
In the case of your own illness or injury, confirmation from a physician, physician's assistant, a nurse-practitioner, or a nurse is required. Be advised that University Health Services cannot provide such verification unless they have provided treatment and the student authorizes release of information to the instructor. Further, barring extraordinary circumstances, the confirmation must be available to the instructor prior to the missed course event.
With regard to family emergencies, you must provide verifiable documentation of the emergency. Given the vast array of family emergencies the instructor will provide precise guidance as to what constitutes adequate documentation. Unless the emergency is critical you should notify the instructor in advance of your absence from the scheduled course event. In cases of critical emergencies, you must notify the instructor within one week of your absence.
For University-approved curricular and extra-curricular activities, verifiable documentation is also required. The student should obtain from the unit or department sponsoring the activity a letter (or class absence form) indicating the anticipated absence(s). The letter must be presented to the instructor at least one week prior to the first absence.
In the case of religious holidays, the student should notify the instructor by the third week of the course of any potential conflicts.
The ability of the University to achieve its purposes depends upon the quality and integrity of the academic work that its faculty, staff and students perform. Academic freedom can flourish only in a community of scholars that recognizes that intellectual integrity, with its accompanying rights and responsibilities, lies at the heart of its mission. Observing basic honesty in one's work, words, ideas, and actions is a principle to which all members of the community are required to subscribe.
All course work by students is to be done on an individual basis unless an instructor clearly states that an alternative is acceptable. Any reference materials used in the preparation of any assignment must be explicitly cited. In an examination setting, unless the instructor gives explicit prior instructions to the contrary, whether the examination is in-class or take-home, violations of academic integrity shall consist of any attempt to receive assistance from written or printed aids, or from any person or papers or electronic devices, or of any attempt to give assistance, whether the one so doing has completed his or her own work or not. Other violations include, but are not limited to, any attempt to gain an unfair advantage in regard to an examination, such as tampering with a graded exam or claiming another's work to be one's own.
Violations shall also consist of obtaining or attempting to obtain, previous to any examinations, copies of the examination papers or the questions to appear thereon, or to obtain any illegal knowledge of these questions. Lying to the instructor or purposely misleading any Penn State administrator shall also constitute a violation of academic integrity.
In cases of a violation of academic integrity it is the policy of the Department of Economics to impose the most severe penalties that are consistent with University guidelines.
The Pennsylvania State University encourages qualified persons with disabilities to participate in its programs and activities. If you anticipate needing any type of accommodation in this course or have questions about physical access, please tell the instructor as soon as possible.