Poisson gravity model: Y ~ Poisson(Z[b(1)Y(-1)/Z(-1)+b(2)X(1)+b(3)X(2)]), where: Y=OUT_MIG_1984 Z=1983-all empl. Y(-1)=OUT_MIG_1983 Z(-1)=1982-all empl. X(1)=Fraction > %change(1983-all empl.) X(2)=1 Initial parameter values based on OLS: b(1)=0.8694967 b(2)=0.0065235 b(3)=0.0021677 Newton iteration succesfully completed after 5 iterations Last absolute parameter change = 1.11022E-016 Last percentage change of the likelihood = 0.00000E+000 Maximum likelihood estimation results: b(.) ML estimate of b(.) (t-value) [p-value] b(1) 0.8682957 (325.684) [0.00000] b(2) 0.0081801 (35.324) [0.00000] b(3) 0.0002114 (0.747) [0.45506] [The two-sided p-values are based on the normal approximation] t-value of Ho: b(1)=1: -49.400 Log likelihood (*): 1.68168926739E+007 Sample size (n): 75 (*) Only the part that depends on the parameters Hausman test: Test statistic: 3.767 Null distribution: Chi-square(3) p-value = 0.28769 Significance levels: 10% 5% Critical values: 6.25 7.81 Conclusions: accept accept If the model is correctly specified then the maximum likelihood parameter estimators b(1),..,b(3), minus their true values, times the square root of the sample size n, are (asymptotically) jointly normally distributed with zero mean vector and variance matrix: 5.33094021E-04 1.03940711E-06 -4.95050101E-05 1.03940711E-06 4.02186419E-06 -2.19540795E-06 -4.95050101E-05 -2.19540795E-06 6.00667720E-06 Bootstrap parameter values: b(1) = 0.8682957 b(2) = 0.0081801 b(3) = 0.0002114 Number of simulations = 1000 Simulated p-values: P[b(1) < 0.868296] = 0.48800 P[b(2) < 0.008180] = 0.49700 P[b(3) < 0.000211] = 0.52400 Joint p-value: 0.00400 Simulated quantiles of b(1): 5%: 0.8638083 10%: 0.8648002 15%: 0.8655051 20%: 0.8660430 25%: 0.8664829 30%: 0.8669144 35%: 0.8672761 40%: 0.8677096 45%: 0.8680308 50%: 0.8683775 55%: 0.8686475 60%: 0.8690086 65%: 0.8693053 70%: 0.8697393 75%: 0.8702039 80%: 0.8706444 85%: 0.8710884 90%: 0.8716480 95%: 0.8728442 Simulated quantiles of b(2): 5%: 0.0077811 10%: 0.0078836 15%: 0.0079386 20%: 0.0079833 25%: 0.0080253 30%: 0.0080576 35%: 0.0080919 40%: 0.0081253 45%: 0.0081565 50%: 0.0081818 55%: 0.0082180 60%: 0.0082450 65%: 0.0082821 70%: 0.0083122 75%: 0.0083482 80%: 0.0083800 85%: 0.0084220 90%: 0.0084713 95%: 0.0085660 Simulated quantiles of b(3): 5%: -0.0002733 10%: -0.0001645 15%: -0.0000884 20%: -0.0000389 25%: 0.0000098 30%: 0.0000456 35%: 0.0000875 40%: 0.0001170 45%: 0.0001519 50%: 0.0001848 55%: 0.0002290 60%: 0.0002732 65%: 0.0003159 70%: 0.0003605 75%: 0.0004008 80%: 0.0004499 85%: 0.0005104 90%: 0.0005789 95%: 0.0007007 Simulated p-value of the Hausman test: 0.24800